February 16, 2016 - Are Recession Fears Just Hype?

February 16, 2016

Markets ended another volatile week lower despite a bounce in oil prices. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.81%, the Dow fell 1.43%, and the NASDAQ dropped 0.59%.[1]

Amid volatile stock prices and disappointing global economic news, you may have heard a lot of chatter on media networks about whether the U.S. economy is facing another recession. In this week's market update, we wanted to share our views.

Why is there so much talk about a recession?

With oil prices barreling below $27 amid a global slowdown, a lot of financial commentators are talking more seriously about the potential for a U.S. recession.[2] These recession fears are not baseless and we're taking them seriously. Predicting a recession is always a difficult exercise because it relies on balancing positive and negative indicators, many of which are based on old data. We heard from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen last week that the Fed sees a mixed economic picture ahead. She further warned that the U.S. economy could feel the effects of economic turmoil abroad.[3] Though Fed economists aren't currently worried about a recession, you can bet that they are taking a close look at potential recession triggers. What are they looking at?[4]

  • Continued weakness in oil and commodity prices that are hurting energy producers.
  • Emerging market issues (particularly in China) that affect exports and U.S. firms.
  • Falling demand in the manufacturing sector.
  • Worries that central banks are out of bullets.

So, what's the good news?

Despite all the doom and gloom in markets right now, the U.S. economy is not lying down and giving up. Here are a few of the things experts see in the pro-growth column:[5]

  • The economy is approaching full employment and employers are still hiring.
  • Wages are increasing, Americans are taking home bigger paychecks, and household savings are growing.
  • Consumers are still spending money on big-ticket items like electronics and motor vehicles.[6]
  • U.S. exports to Brazil, Russia, India, and China - four of the largest emerging markets - totaled just 1.14% of U.S. GDP in 2014. That's a drop in the bucket of total economic activity.[7]

Will the economy slide into recession in 2016?

We don't know, but we do know that recessions don't just happen for no reason. As Yellen put it in her remarks to Congress: "The evidence suggests that expansions don't die of old age."[8] In short, something has to happen to cause a recession and the Fed doesn't see anything on the horizon yet.

That's not to say that the economic picture is rosy. Economists are not predicting breakout growth in 2016. However, they're also not predicting a recession. The Wall Street Journal forecasts first-quarter 2016 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.0%.[9] The Atlanta Fed is more optimistic, predicting 2.7% growth.[10]

However, recession risk is rising; the latest Wall Street poll of economists put the risk of a recession in the next 12 months at 21%[11], double where it was in June. However, the same poll reported recession probabilities of 16% in January 2011 and 17% in January 2012[12]. Neither year ushered in a recession. The reality is that we won't know when a recession starts or ends until it has already happened, and there is no way to predict it with any certainty.

Our View

2016 has been a very rocky road for equities, and the volatility is likely to stick with us for a while. Bad news has dominated markets for weeks and we don't know when sentiment will swing the other way. However, let's remember that the current correction is coming after years of sustained growth.

We're keeping a close eye on economic and market fundamentals and making investment decisions based on our analysis as well as our clients' individual situations. We know that corrections are uncomfortable and that you may have questions about the economy and how it may affect your portfolio. If you have questions or concerns, please reach out to us directly, we'd be happy to talk to you.


Monday: U.S. Markets Closed for Presidents Day Holiday
Tuesday: Empire State Mfg. Survey, Housing Market Index, Treasury International Capital
Wednesday: Housing Starts, PPI-FD, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, EIA Petroleum Status Report
Friday: Consumer Price Index

Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance and Treasury.gov. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Corporate bond performance is represented by the DJCBP. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.


Supreme Court Justice Scalia passes away. The conservative justice's death leaves a gap in the nation's highest court and ups the stakes in this year's presidential election. It is not clear whether it will be President Obama or his successor who will nominate the next justice.[13]

Retail sales rise more than expected. Consumers spent more than forecasted in January across many categories of goods, easing fears about consumer spending this year.[14]

Consumer sentiment drops. Worries about the economy took their toll on a measure of consumer optimism though long-term prospects remain stable.[15]

Chinese exports slump in January. China's exports - a major driver of the economy - dropped 11.2% from the previous January. The fall was larger than forecast and highlights China's growing economic woes.[16]

These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.

The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index is a 96-bond index designed to represent the market performance, on a total-return basis, of investment-grade bonds issued by leading U.S. companies. Bonds are equally weighted by maturity cell, industry sector, and the overall index.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

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  1. http://finance.yahoo.com
  2. http://money.cnn.com
  3. http://fortune.com/2016/02/10
  4. http://fortune.com/2016/02/10
  5. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/14
  6. http://www.reuters.com
  7. https://www.census.gov
  8. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/11
  9. http://projects.wsj.com
  10. https://www.frbatlanta.org
  11. http://projects.wsj.com
  12. http://projects.wsj.com
  13. http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/13
  14. http://www.foxbusiness.com
  15. http://www.foxbusiness.com
  16. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/14/